Category: Iranian Moment
515 Loupe 11-27-2019
M15P4LDW understand this about The Iranian Moment
Iran’s supreme leader on Wednesday claimed without evidence that recent protests across the Islamic Republic over government-set gasoline prices rising were part of a “conspiracy”
Starting Nov. 16, Iran shut down the internet across the country, limiting communications with the outside world. That made determining the scale and longevity of the protests incredibly difficult. While home and office internet has been restored, access on mobile phones remains rare.
With the Internet access almost entirely cut off in attempts to conceal the “scope of the uprising and the scale of it brutality”, some 61 people have been reported dead in 10 cities, but the NCRI said it expects the actual number to be much higher, because most of the 61 deaths were recorded when the protests broke out on November 16, but those who have been killed since have not been recorded.
Angry protestors in their thousands took to the streets, abandoning vehicles on motorways and blocking roads.
Khamenei ordered the Revolutionary Guards and other suppressive forces to open fire on the demonstrations in different cities.
Reports have come in of armed forced shooting indiscriminately at protestors in attempts to disperse crowds and gain access to streets.
All active duty members of the Revolutionary Guard have been recalled from annual leave and dispatched to protest scenes.
Protesters torched the Iranian consulate in the holy city of Najaf late on Wednesday. The demonstrators removed the Iranian flag from the building and replaced it with an Iraqi one.
The incident marked an escalation in the demonstrations that have raged in Baghdad and across the mostly Shiite southern Iraq since the start of October.
The protesters accuse the Shiite-led government of being hopelessly corrupt and complain of poor public services and high unemployment. They are also decrying growing Iranian influence in Iraqi state affairs.
At least 350 people have been killed and thousands wounded in what has become the largest grass-roots protest movement in Iraq’s modern history.
Protesters are occupying three key bridges in central Baghdad, Jumhuriya, Ahrar and Sinar in a stand-off with security forces. On Wednesday, they also burned tyres on Ahrar Bridge to block security forces from accessing the area.
Hong Kong, Chile, Iraq, Lebanon: protests erupt around the world
515 Loupe 11-25-2019
515 Loupe 11-21-2019
515 Loupe 11-19-2019
515 Loupe 11-16-2019
Know and Understand about this IRANIAN MOMENT
See more inside the
May 15th Prophecy Twitter Timeline
515 Loupe 11-23-2018
See all 19 of the May 15th Prophecy Watchman Twitter Moments
https://twitter.com/May15thProphecy/moments
515 Loupe 10-15-2018
The Trump administration is set to claim credit for a declining economic situation in Iran.
This puts Iran in a precarious situation with no easy remedy.
Analysts now expect the Iranian economy to expand by just 3.1 percent this year and a mere 0.9 percent next year.
Therefore see what happens next with 100% Accuracy
may15thprophecy.wordpress.com
515 Loupe 10-12-2018
515 Loupe 08-11-2018
The following is an internal Security Studies Group (SSG) report that we have decided to make public. The reason to publish the report is to raise a crucial point that our analyst hits upon. “The protests have become more like a channel through which various groups of people vent their frustration but there is no roadmap to what to do afterward. In other words, it is protesting for the sake of protesting.”
SSG supports the Iranian people’s pursuit of a new birth of liberty. Almost every popular revolution has started with sustained protests, and these are indeed large, sustained, and also cut broadly across Iran’s social strata. There is a potential for things to break rapidly if a proposed solution comes to be seen as viable by the bulk of the diverse protesting groups. That is how the 1979 revolution happened. Until it is clear what solution the Iranian protest groups find plausible, however, no one can assess whether there is a tipping point to these protests, what that point is, or who will ultimately benefit from reaching it. It remains a dangerous moment.
The recent waves of protests in Esfahan, Shahin Shahr, Najaf Abad (all three are in Esfahan province which has always been on the IR’s side), Karaj, Shiraz, Shahr-e-Kord, and etc. follows the pattern of the protests in Dec/Jan. The main issues are economic yet the main chants are ‘death to the dictator’ and ‘death to Rouhani’. The grievances are increasing daily yet there is no prospect for their betterment, the latter only creates more frustration. Devaluation of the national currency and the high inflation that is tailgating it, water and electricity shortage in most of the cities combined with the quotidian suppression of the social freedoms have made the recent protests a tapestry of grievances each peace coming from different social strata. An interesting feature of the current protests is the visibly salient participation of women.
The current pretests, however, is relatively underrepresented on twitter. The news that I receive directly from Iran claims more people and more incidents than the ones that are covered on the social media. #چالش_دعوت_به_تظاهرات , for example, with 97,500 number of tweets is one of the hashtags that is being used with more frequency. The pattern shows a regular behavior which corresponds to the ongoing and continuous protests in the mentioned cities. But as it was the case with the Dec/Jan, these protests, lacking leadership or a clear aim, will likely end after a few days. The protests have become more like a channel through which various groups of people vent their frustration but there is no roadmap to what to do afterward. In other words, it is protesting for the sake of protesting. The government, on the other hand, has become more efficient and professional in dealing with the protestors. Comparing to the Dec/Jan protests with a death toll of 20, the recent ones have not had a single serious casualty so far.
#چالش_دعوت_به_تظاهرات pattern in a day
Apparently, the current protests have started in Isfahan Shahpour district—which is the market for heavy machinery and equipment—and has then spread to other cities. It was only a few months ago that the truck drivers went on strike because of the high price of the spare parts. Given that most of the heavy machinery and the spare parts are imported the recent downfall of Iran’s currency has heavily disturbed the market. As it has been the case with the recent protests in Iran, Tehran lags behind the nationwide protest. This is partly due to the general dominance of the middle-class population in Tehran whose concerns are not necessarily similar to other less affluent parts of Iran. Yet this explains the underrepresentation of the protests on the social media.
Another hashtag which is used with less frequency is #اعتراضات_سراسری and #IranProtestswhich is the same one that was being used during the Dec/Jan’s protests. The number of tweets for this one is 19,900 but the bot score for this hashtag is 4 which makes it less organic and more organized. Nevertheless, the pattern is similar to that of #چالش_دعوت_به_تظاهراتalbeit with less consistency which is the result of the fewer number of tweets:
#اعتراضات_سراسری’s pattern in a day
The following accounts have been received much attention and have shaped the discussion on the recent protests:
@PahlaviReza: the account of the former crown prince of Iran with 1507 re-tweets so far has been an influential figure in the debate. Not all retweets, however, are endorsements and almost 30% replies, which in turn, can be a criticism of the content or the character of Mr. Pahlavi.
Other Influences based on the number of views and retweets are:
Geographical distribution of the tweets
Both #اعتراضات_سراسری and #چالش_دعوت_به_تظاهرات are tweeted from similar regions of Iran. Unsurprisingly, Tehran and Karaj where people have more access to the internet and social media are overrepresented on the map.
The map shows the cities wherein some protests have been going on:
The global pattern of #چالش_دعوت_به_تظاهرات (high density in the Balkan area has probably to do with the activity of MEK, the rest of Europe are normally old-school Marxists who have been against the IR for decades. from the Security Studies Group (SSG)